The arrival of meat and eggs in the season of livestock and poultry breeding "Three Musketeers" to reproduce the fighter

There are no eggs under the nest. The recent market slumped and the livestock and poultry farming sector also suffered adjustments. However, in stark contrast to the broader market decline, the price of livestock and poultry has recently returned to the upward path: the price of live pigs has stopped falling; the prices of eggs and chicken have reached new highs; the price of chickens and ducklings has returned after a seasonally low season. rise.

The rise in product prices is a direct logic of speculation on livestock and poultry. From the perspective of recent market performance, although the overall livestock and poultry sector suffered adjustments, the Shengnong Development (quotations, information) (002299, closing price of 38.40 yuan), prebiotic shares (quotations, information) (002458, closing price of 37.5 yuan) in the sector. ), Huaying Agriculture (Quote, Information) (002321, closing price of 22.16 yuan) and other stocks have shown resilience.

An analyst at a brokerage in Shanghai told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that at present, the profitability of listed livestock and poultry companies has been in a better period. Against the backdrop of continued bullish product prices, the market's decline has given investors a better layout opportunity. Livestock and poultry "Three Musketeers" Prebiotics, Shengnong Development, and Huaying Agriculture are already rekindling fighter.

The price of live pigs stabilized and stabilized. In general, the price of livestock and poultry in the small cycle has its own fluctuation rules, but in the large cycle, their movements are closely related to the price of pigs.

Since mid-November last year, an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease has occurred in South Korea, and the willingness of Chinese and small-scale farmers to breed has been affected. In some areas, farmers slaughtered ahead of schedule. On the one hand, the supply is increasing. On the other hand, the epidemic will also cause people's concerns to a certain extent, thus curbing consumption. Under the influence of the above two factors, the price of live pigs fell for six consecutive weeks.

However, the Ministry of Agriculture's Livestock Husbandry Department's recent data on live pigs and fertile sows in December 2010 showed that the number of live pigs in December was 453.8 million, down 3.24% year-on-year and down 0.2% from November 2010. The number of herds capable of breeding sows was 47.5 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 3.26%, and a 1.93% increase from the previous month. As of January 14, the pig-to-food ratio was 6.72, up 0.09 from December 31 last year.

The above data shows that after the slaughter of the previous period, the amount of live pigs has been on a ring-to-shine ratio and double-down on a year-on-year basis. The market supply has been reduced, and the breeding profits have remained high. Recently, the price of pigs has stopped falling, especially in the week of January 16, the average price of pigs in the country rose slightly by 0.4% to 13.67 yuan/kg.

The above brokerage analysts believe that the current demand has returned to normal levels, and the supply capacity has been greatly reduced due to the previous epidemic. Pig prices will rise again. In addition, due to the decline in the amount of livestock and the arrival of consumption peaks, the price of pigs may rise before the Spring Festival.

The price of livestock and poultry has risen again and again. “When the general assessment of the price of pigs has been established, it is relatively easy to control the price of livestock and poultry.” The analysts of the above brokerages believe that the price of livestock and poultry has remained strong in recent times, including chicken, The prices of eggs and other products have also hit new highs. After the prices of chickens and other products that have a high degree of correlation with listed companies have experienced seasonal seasonal declines, they have recently entered a rebound channel. In addition to increasing the profitability of related listed companies, the increase in livestock prices may also be a catalyst for rising stock prices in the secondary market.

First of all, from the perspective of the chicken industry chain, there has been a large-scale cooling in the country and there has been an increase in broiler chicken breeding. Under the impact of the drop in supply, the recent rise in chicken prices has risen to the highest level since 2009. Among them, in the week of January 16, the price of chickens in Shandong reached 4.83 yuan/kg, up 3.6% from the previous month. Under this influence, the ex-factory price of chicken meat produced by Shengnong has already exceeded 12,000 yuan/ton, which will directly drive Broiler farming profits increase.

The increase in chicken prices supported the price of chickens. Since November 2010, the price of chickens has experienced a seasonal downward trend. This is mainly due to the low season of meat consumption in the previous period and the corresponding reduction in the demand for livestock restocking. However, the recent strong performance of broiler prices has also increased the demand for chickens. This further raised the market price.

From yesterday (January 21st), the price of chicken seedlings in Shandong showed that the prices of chickens in most regions have rebounded to over RMB 2.5/feature, with the highest price in Yantai reaching RMB 3/feather, and prices in Taian, Zaozhuang, Dongying, etc. Also reached 2.8 yuan/feather. In terms of ducklings, the lowest price in the first quarter of 2010 was less than RMB 1/feature. The highest price in the previous period rose to RMB 9/feather. Although it has fallen back to RMB 6.5/feather, the downside is also limited.

The above analysts expect that the current business of duck seedlings will be in a profitable stage, and it may be difficult to continue in the future, and prices may have adjustment pressures. However, taking into account the strong demand for chickens and ducks to pull the demand, the supply of chickens and ducks for a substantial increase in the supply of goods requires 7 to 8 months, so in the early off-season, the chicken, ducklings prices will continue to rebound.

Prebiotics (Quotes, Information): Direct benefit from chicken seedlings The Precious Shares are mainly engaged in sales of parental chicks. The main chain of rising product prices are: rising pig prices - rising chicken prices - increasing demand for broiler stockpiling - rising prices of chicken seedlings in the commercial generation - increasing demand for parent chicks - rising parental chick prices. Generally 3-4 months after the price of chicken embryos in the commodity generation increases, the price of the parent chicks will increase.

At present, the price of parental chicks has risen from the lowest 9 yuan/set in the third quarter of 2010 to 14 yuan/set, and in the first quarter of 2011, it will reach 16 to 17 yuan/set. Analysts of a securities firm in Shanghai estimate that the 2011/12 annual average price of parent chickens for probiotics will be 16.5 yuan/set and 18 yuan/set. If the average price fluctuates by 1 yuan/set, the impact on 2011 results is 0.128 yuan. In addition, based on the fourth quarter of 2010, the generation of parental chicks has been on the rise. Therefore, it is a high probability event that the performance of the probiotics in the first quarter of 2011 will exceed expectations. It is conservatively estimated that the earnings per share in the first quarter will be around 0.35 yuan.

In addition, the introduction of 46,000 ancestral chickens in the company’s IPO fund-raising project has basically been completed. The number of introduced seeds in 2010 was close to 320,000 units, an increase of 15% year-on-year, which will directly stimulate the growth of the production and sales of the chicken seedlings business of 2011-2012 Yisheng. .

Shengnong Development (Marketing, Information): Increased production capacity in hand McDonald's KFC Shengnong Development In addition to the current increase in broiler chickens, the ex-factory price may exceed 12,000 yuan/ton, and another major aspect is the increase in "quantity."

First of all, from the perspective of production capacity, Shengnong Development’s “Three-year Reengineering” issuance project announced in November last year has already started the advance of advance investment. As of the end of November last year, the company has completed a total production capacity of broiler chickens exceeding 120 million, and each The speed of 10 farms (approximately 20 million birds per year in total) was fully promoted during the quarter. In November last year, the company slaughtered more than 370,000 birds per day (calculated on 300 days a year).

As production capacity increases, sales continue to advance. Earlier Sanonong Development announced that it has signed a cooperation agreement with McDonald's, the world's largest supplier, to establish a joint venture company (Fusheng) to supply McDonald's. The joint venture subsidiary is not limited to McDonald's chicken suppliers in China, but is targeting the Asia Pacific region. And even the global market. In addition to McDonald's, Shengnong Development is also a supplier of KFC, which accounts for approximately 18% of KFC's total procurement. Because of the variety of issues, KFC has cancelled the supply qualification of one of the three previously selected strategic suppliers.

An analyst from a brokerage firm in Beijing believes that the cancellation of one of the suppliers will allow the remaining market space in the future to be supplemented by the remaining two households, including Shengnong, and the share of Shengnong will further increase. In addition, McDonald's has maintained 15% in mainland China in recent years. The speed of the above exhibition stores, the successful development of Sanonong involved in McDonald's first-line procurement system, will share this part of the high-growth benefits.

Wah Ying Agriculture (Market News, Information): Ducklings will be a performance booster Huaying's agricultural businesses include ducklings, frozen ducks and cooked food, among which frozen duck is the company’s most important business, contributing 60% and 70% to revenue and profit, respectively. , It can be said that it is the driving force for performance growth, and the duck and duck seedling business accounted for 13% and 20% of revenue and profit, respectively, which is a performance regulator.

A brokerage analyst believes that the current duck meat prices are as strong as chicken, Huaying Agriculture duck business per net profit of up to 4.5 yuan, is expected in the fourth quarter of 2010 Huaying Agriculture duck sales net profit of 50 million yuan, contributing per share The income is 0.34 yuan. Also based on the logic of rising prices, Huaying Agriculture also has good investment opportunities.

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