Food prices rebound "stabilizing prices" can hardly be loosened

The price of edible agricultural products has reappeared and rebounded, putting pressure on the price situation of a little relief. According to the monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 29th, last week (November 21-27), the price of edible agricultural products rebounded after falling for six weeks.

Analysts believe that the price of edible agricultural products will continue to decline slightly in November, but the factors that push up prices again remain. Although the focus of the market is shifting towards economic growth, policies will not abandon the goal of “controlling inflation” and will maintain a balance between economic growth and price stability.

In November, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose slightly for the third consecutive week, up 3% from the previous week and 4.9% from the beginning of November; the average wholesale price of 8 kinds of aquatic products increased by 0.9%. %; grain and oil retail prices rose slightly steadily.

The retail price of eggs continued to fall, with a cumulative decrease of 5% in the past two months. Liu Tong, head of the statistics department of Beijing's Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, believes that the current supply of eggs has already shown a trend of oversupply. There are more eggs in the market, and it is difficult to absorb excess demand in a short time. Egg and egg prices have become increasingly evident in low-cost areas.

In meat products, prices of lamb and beef rose by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, while pork prices fell by 1%, a cumulative decrease of 10.7% since mid-September. Liu Tong believes that the price of pigs in most parts of China is almost close to the bottom. The price of pigs in a few areas is still at the bottom of the adjustment stage. The price of pigs in most areas has stabilized and slowly picks up, and the continuous decline in prices is quietly changing.

The prices of edible agricultural products have gone up and down, and some varieties have shown signs of a rebound, which has added uncertainty to the trend of prices in the later period. In fact, the year-on-year rise in the consumer price index (CPI) this year began to decline from August, but was mainly affected by the decrease in the amount of hikes. As the main driver of price increases this year, the price of food has continued to rise.

Until October, food prices began to decline month-on-month, driven by the fall in pork prices for several weeks. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in October, food prices rose 11.9% year-on-year, affecting the overall price level rose by about 3.62%, while the price fell by 0.2%, including the price of meat and poultry products fell by 0.6%, the egg price fell 3.8%, aquatic product prices fell 1.5%.

From the perspective of the entire November period, although the prices of edible agricultural products have risen steadily in the past week, they will still fall month-on-month. Huatai Securities (601688, stocks) expects that after the food prices fell significantly in October than in October, the price chain's decline in November will narrow slightly, non-food prices will continue to remain in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%. Taken together, it is initially expected that the CPI for the month of November will be in the range of 0 to 0.1%, and the year-on-year increase of the CPI is expected to be around 4.6%.

Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that according to the data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture, the price of edible agricultural products has continued to decline slightly since November, and food prices are expected to ring this month. It will decrease, taking into account that the CPI carryover factor in November will continue to fall sharply by 1.1 percentage points compared with that in October, which is the largest monthly decline in the year. The initial estimate of the CPI increase in November may be around 4.3%, indicating that the CPI in the fourth quarter was on a year-on-year basis. Out of the accelerated decline.

Predicting the trend of price still facing multiple uncertainties is accompanied by the continuing downward trend in the prices of agricultural products. “The establishment of a downward trend in price increases during the year” has become the consensus of all parties in the market. Wu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the Central Bank, recently said in an investigation in two provinces, Shandong and Jilin, that the effectiveness of China's financial macroeconomic regulation and control has gradually emerged, and the tendency of excessive price increases has been initially contained.

Analysts also believe that there is still uncertainty about the future trend of prices. The main factors that push up prices again include rising labor costs, rising prices of international commodities, seasonal price increases for agricultural products, increased quantitative easing expectations in developed countries, and energy and resources. Product price reform pressures.

Tang Jianwei believes that in the medium and long term, the factors that drive the price increase still exist, such as the increase in the labor cost caused by the demographic transition, the increase in resource prices caused by the price reform of resource products, and the reduction in land area caused by urbanization. All will push up the price level.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, told reporters that in the short term, the slowdown in the growth of the money supply and the slowdown in aggregate demand are conducive to the fall in prices. However, the uncertainty in the external market still exists. If the United States continues to implement the quantitative easing monetary policy, international commodity prices will remain high or even continue to rise. This situation may slow down the pace of falling domestic prices.

Since late September of this year, the weather factors that are the subject of speculation in the agricultural product market have “retreated to the second line”, and the macroeconomic problems such as the European debt crisis have become the main factors that drag down the prices of bulk agricultural products. With the introduction of policies to rescue the market and the improvement of the economic environment in various countries, the tight supply and demand of bulk agricultural products may become more prominent, and the prices of some varieties will gradually recover “lost ground”.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that with the country’s macroeconomic controls, monetary tightening, and withdrawal of hot money, the impact of the external environment on agricultural products has generally weakened. In the coming days, the prices of agricultural products will increasingly depend on supply and demand. If the supply of a certain agricultural product falls short of demand, its price will remain strong.

In the case of vegetables whose prices have fallen sharply recently, the reduction in future production may push up the price of vegetables again. Liu Tong said that merchants in the new market have reported that because vegetable prices have been relatively low this year, some farmers have dismantled the greenhouses and removed the vegetable greenhouses that had already been set up and prepared to grow corn afterwards. They reflected that now the price of corn is higher than the price of wheat, and the income from working for vegetable farmers exceeds the income of vegetable farmers, which may affect the production and planting of vegetables in the next year.

Policy measures will balance "inflation control" and "steady growth"

"Inflation" is one of the keywords of the Chinese economy this year. Keeping the general price level stable has become the primary task of the government's economic work. The government has introduced tightening of monetary policy, crackdown on speculation and speculation, clean-up of circulation, limit prices, throwing reserves, etc. Series of measures.

From June to September this year, the year-on-year increase of CPI continued to climb above the high of more than 6%, and in July it hit a new high of 6.5% in 37 months. The whole society felt the tremendous pressure brought by inflation.

The analysis of Everbright Securities (601788, stocks) believes that the market has turned its attention from the inflation trend during the year to the prospect of future inflation. At present, the downward trend in inflation during the year, the mild economic growth, and the orderly loosening of macroeconomic controls have become market consensus. The outlook for inflation next year will affect the intensity and rhythm of the current policy fine-tuning and will also further affect macro-control next year.

The political commissar of Industrial Bank Lu Zheng, the chief economist, believes that prices have now entered a downward avenue, and by the middle of next year will reach the bottom of the CPI in the current round, and then slowly rise.

Tang Jianwei predicted that due to the lagging effect of the regulatory policies and the weakening of inflation expectations, the price increase rate in 2012 will show a further decline. The initial judgment of 2012 year-on-year CPI increase will be in the range of 3% to 3.5%. In general, inflation in 2012 will not be a major issue in the macro economy.

Based on the judgment of the price situation in the later period, some analysts stated that the control of price increases should fade out of the first regulatory goal, and the focus of macroeconomic control policies should be devoted to finding the right balance between rising prices and economic growth. According to media reports, the forthcoming Central Economic Work Conference will be different from this year's control of inflation as the top priority in determining the macroeconomic policies and objectives for the coming year. The goal of steady growth next year will be enhanced.

However, the upward pressure on prices still exists. "Controlling inflation" will not leave the policy vision. Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Economic Reform Research Foundation, believes that as a developing country, an inflation rate of more than 3% or 4% is dangerous, and it is easy to enter hyperinflation and poor control. Monetary policy will not enter a loose state at the macro level, but it still needs to be careful about inflation.

Lu political commissar told reporters that the policy always adjusts between economic growth and price stability. On the one hand, due to the economic growth rate, although the absolute growth rate is still within the acceptable range of the policy; on the other hand, prices have fallen, but the absolute price level is still relatively high. Therefore, the policy can only be said to be looser than in the past, but it is still not enough to give up the goal of controlling inflation.

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